Who can blame the networks for lavishing ever more attention on the presidential primaries?  The writers’ strike has turned prime time television into even more of a wasteland than usual, and if you saw the “unscripted” season premiere of American Idol, then you know we desperately need some sort of entertaining diversion to see us through an unusually dull winter.  By the time the New England Patriots get done winning the Super Bowl, we would be bored out of our minds if it weren’t for that mesmerizing gang of contenders for the White House.

But at the risk of incurring the wrath of the pundits and talking heads whose very livelihood depends on us actually giving a wit, let me suggest that in some very important areas, it really does not matter who gets elected to the Presidency in 2008.  In fact, economic and geopolitical realities will so constrain the next President that the White House will pursue many of the same policies, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.

A few examples might help us defy conventional wisdom on the importance of the primaries.  Take Iraq, for instance.  Democrats especially have made much political hay out of the unpopular war there.  Even some Republicans have called for a withdrawal of troops.  If the struggle in Iraq were simply about restoring order to a hopelessly disordered country, withdrawal might very well be a reasonable option.  But American media suffer from myopia when it comes the Iraq war.  A glance at the map reveals that Iraq has neighbors, notably including Iran and Saudi Arabia.  American interests absolutely require that no single country dominate the Middle East region.  Saudi Arabia cannot resist a resurgent Iran all by itself, and America cannot abide an Iranian-dominated Middle East.  Do the math and you will see—as will the next President—that our interests necessitate a military presence in the area for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of myopia, the next President, whoever he or she may be, will also realize that Iraq is not the only threat to American interests in the world.  Russia has emerged from its post-communist funk to threaten several of its former Soviet republics and manipulate European energy supplies.  When properly organized and led, Russia is America’s greatest natural geopolitical adversary.  Ruthless tyrant and Time magazine “Person of the Year” Vladimir Putin has shown he is not afraid to use Russian military power and energy resources to intimidate and exploit not only his neighbors but America’s allies.  The next President will be compelled to deal forcefully with the growing Russian threat.

Closer to home, the American economy is facing trouble.  Recession fears are rising in some quarters, and while those fears may not come fruition in 2008 (then again they might), given the nature and length of the business cycle the next President will undoubtedly face a recession.  And when recession looms, the American people increasingly demand “something” be done.  Even now, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress—not known for their close, working relationship—have suddenly found common ground on tax cuts and economic stimulus that, frankly, would have been unthinkable a year ago.  Recession has a way of focusing Washington’s collective attention.

For those who still maintain that the future of the planet will be decided on February 5 or maybe November 4, consider the eight year tenure of Democrat Bill Clinton.  Despite the fears of some conservatives, eight years of Clinton did not turn America into a modern day Sodom with every teenager addicted to drugs and every street corner sporting an abortion clinic.  Likewise, eight years of George Bush did not turn America into an evangelical theocracy (as liberals still seem to fear), with prayers in schools, homosexuals in closets, and abortions in alleys.

In practice, reality moderates even the most ambitious politician.  So by all means, if you are fortunate enough to live in a state that votes on or before Super Tuesday, go out and vote.  But whoever wins, do not look for a revolution in 2008 and expect American Idol to be back as usual in 2009, even if it does get a little duller.