As Mike Huckabee’s presidential hopes fade faster than the fried chicken at a church potluck and John McCain marches inexorably to the Republican nomination, media attention understandably begins to turn to the question of a running mate. Who will be Candidate McCain’s shield-bearer as he gives battle to Hillabama and the Democratic Horde?

Conventional wisdom holds that McCain needs to sure up his conservative base. Of course if McCain were a reliable conservative himself, that would not be necessary. American Conservative Union ratings aside, attentive Republicans know McCain is a moderate. So naturally, McCain will seek a running mate with more valid conservative credentials, right? Bonus points if that “real” conservative also happens to be a southerner who brings the southern voting bloc into McCain’s camp.

Some will say that last sentence best describes Huckabee himself, the one-time foe perhaps turned running mate. But astute conservatives have already started to question Huckabee’s conservatism. Sure, he is pro-life, anti-gay, and a self-proclaimed Christian Leader, but his Fair Trade platform more closely resembles that of Hugo Chavez than Ronald Reagan, and his immigration policy has something of a John Kerry “I voted for it before I voted against it” ring to it.

Not to worry. The South is a big region hardly lacking in legitimate conservatives. In fact the aspirants are lining up, all decked out in their finest gowns as though it were the politicians’ debutante ball. Charlie Crist of Florida. Haley Barbour of Mississippi. Mark Sanford of South Carolina. Any of them could convincingly play the role of Conservative Sidekick to McCain’s Moderate Maverick.

But what if McCain does not submit to conventional wisdom? Isn’t that what it means to be a maverick, after all? McCain has recently hinted that regional strategies are not as important as they used to be, adding, "The fundamental principle behind any selection of a running mate would be whether that person is fully prepared to take over and shares your values, your principles, your philosophy and your priorities." That does not sound like a man looking to sure up his conservative base.

So, who among Republican centrists stands out? Rudy Giuliani, who helped McCain’s candidacy a great deal by bowing out of the nomination contest, might do. Another fashionable Republican centrist, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is constitutionally disqualified from the office. But what if McCain is not even looking for a Republican running mate at all? Perhaps the closest friend of McCain in the U.S. Senate is Joe Lieberman, the Independent Ex-Democrat from Connecticut.

A McCain-Lieberman ticket would certainly be novel. And it would represent a new theory of the American electorate. Historically we have seen Republicans running from the right, Democrats running from the left, and both vying to capture a majority of the middle. Reagan’s winning formula was right + center = victory. Similarly, Bill Clinton’s formula was left + center = victory.

But we have seen a steady growth in the number of voters identifying themselves as moderates and independents. McCain may be calculating that the time has come for a new electoral formula, something like center + disaffected right + disaffected left = victory. In short, perhaps McCain-Lieberman does not really need the hardcore conservative constituency in order to win the general election.

Such a strategy would be risky, of course, but that die may already have been cast by McCain’s presence on the Republican ticket. That other Christian Leader James Dobson has said he will not vote in November if McCain receives the nomination. Mr. Dobson is no doubt a man of his word, and some of his listeners will likely follow suit. But some will not. The question then comes down to one of political geography. Are states like Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi going to flip Democratic because of a McCain-Lieberman combination? On the other hand, might rust belt states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan move more solidly Republican in response to a more moderate ticket? California and even parts of New England could return to the Republican orbit absent the heretofore requisite southern conservative presence.

By all accounts, McCain has yet to make up his mind on a running mate. Should he go the centrist route, however, we will witness a new twist in this already twisted campaign season—a Republican ticket not explicitly designed to attract southern conservatives and evangelicals.