How Did History Beat John Kerry? Charles W. Dunn, Dean Robertson School of Government Regent University Greenville News (SC); Pantagraph (Bloomington, IL) — November 10, 2004

Was history as much John Kerry's opponent as George W. Bush? History offers 10 insights.
The South. Since the Civil War, no Democrat has won the presidency without winning the South. The latest polls show Senator Kerry competitive in only two southern states, Arkansas and Florida. Of the nation's major regions, 13 southern states hold by far the largest bloc of electoral votes, 168, followed by the Northeast with 122 and the Industrial Midwest with 107, which gave President Bush a large bloc of electoral votes before the polls open.
Incumbency. Since the Civil War, only twice has the incumbent party, after one term in office, lost the presidency: Cleveland in 1888 and Carter in 1980. To illustrate, both the Democratic and Republican Parties easily retained control of the White House after their first terms in 1936 (Roosevelt), 1956 (Eisenhower), 1964 (Johnson), 1972 (Nixon), 1984 (Reagan), and 1996 (Clinton). Every Republican President running for reelection after his party's first term in office has won reelection.
Wartime. Americans traditionally reelect wartime presidents, such as during the War of 1812, the Civil War, World War I, and World War II. The "War on Terror" appears as no exception. Fifty-six percent of the public trusted Bush more than Kerry to conduct that war (Time poll 10/25).
Job Approval and Likeability Ratings. Presidents Reagan and Clinton won reelection, respectively, in 1984 and 1996 with favorability ratings of about 53 percent, precisely the favorability rating of President Bush in the latest Time magazine poll (10/25). Bolstering this data, 51 percent of the public in the same poll held a favorable opinion of Bush compared to only 45 percent for Kerry.
The Economy. Again Presidents Reagan and Clinton in 1984 and 1996 had unemployment rates around 5.3 percent, approximately the same as now. In the latest Time magazine poll (10/25), Kerry did not gain a lead over Bush on this issue that traditionally favors Democratic presidential candidates by large margins.
African-Americans and Women. Since the New Deal, African-Americans have overwhelming supported Democratic presidential candidates, sometimes by margins exceeding nine to one, but this year Bush won between 10 and 20 percent. Women in recent presidential races have favored Democratic presidential candidates, best illustrated by the "soccer moms" of 2000, but this year women were evenly split between Bush and Kerry, according to the latest FOX News poll (10/25).
Independent Voters. Typically challengers in close races must receive a substantial portion of the independent vote, but the latest FOX News poll (10/25) showed that self-identified independent voters back Bush over Kerry by a margin of 52 to 34 percent.
Bell-Weather States. Only once has Missouri voted for the losing presidential candidate, while Ohio never has. Already Kerry has given up on Missouri, and Bush won Ohio early today.
Battleground States. According to the Reuters/Zogby Polls (10/25), Bush led in 10 of the hotly contested 16 battleground states. Given Bush's lead in the non-battleground states, Kerry had to compensate with major victories in battleground states.
Executive versus Legislative Experience. When the public faces a choice between an executive and a legislator for president, they almost always elect the executive, such as in 1984 (Reagan versus Mondale) and 1996 (Clinton versus Dole). The same was true in 2004. In CNN's "Poll of Polls", which has averaged all polls in each of the nine weeks between September 30 and October 23, President Bush led in every weekly average.
The 2004 election confirmed that "history is the best predictor of the future."
 
About the Author:
Dr. Dunn, dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent, is the author or editor of numerous books including: The Seven Laws of Presidential Leadership (2006), The Future of the American Presidency (1975), American Democracy Debated (2nd ed., 1982), American Political Theology (1984), Religion in American Politics (1989), The Scarlet Thread of Scandal: Morality and the American Presidency (2000), Faith, Freedom, and the Future: Religion in American Political Culture (2003), The Conservative Tradition in America (3rd ed., 2003). He has also had citations and op-ed columns in many newspapers and magazines and appearances on such programs as All Things Considered, The Today Show, ABC World News Tonight, and The O'Reilly Factor. He has taught at Florida State University, the University of Illinois-Urbana, Clemson University, and Grove City College. His degrees are from Illinois State University and Florida State University.