A mystery worthy of Agatha Christie is unfolding in the Middle East.  While the media have focused their attention on the likes of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and U.S. General David Petraeus, Israel and Syria have been engaged in an intriguing and potentially dangerous drama.

On September 6 jets from the Israeli Air Force (IAF) penetrated deep into Syrian airspace.  On its face, such an incursion is unremarkable.  The IAF conducts frequent over-flights along its border with Syria.  And due to its embarrassingly weak air defense system, Syria has largely been open sky for the IAF, to the degree that Israeli jets are often safely back on the ground before Syria can launch countermeasures.

Several factors set apart this incursion from the usual over-flights across Syria’s southern border.  First, the IAF incursion took place in northeastern Syria, along its border with Turkey, quite far from Israel.  Furthermore, this time the Syrians were able to run-off one or more of the IAF planes as evidenced by discarded external fuel tanks.  (Pilots often jettison their external tanks in order to lighten their aircraft for a faster get-away.)

Here the plot thickens.  Initial press coverage tended to spin the episode as 1) a botched IAF reconnaissance mission, and 2) a victory for Syria and its newly installed, Russian-made air defense batteries.  But why were IAF jets operating so far from home in airspace that holds little military value?  And why so close to the Turkish border—so close, in fact, that the jettisoned fuel tanks actually landed in Turkish territory?  And is it really a victory to run off a plane that has already penetrated hundreds of miles into sovereign airspace?

In the days and weeks following the incursion, Syria boasted, while Israel said nothing.  Turkey publicly demanded to know why Israel was operating so close to its border, but quickly dropped the issue.  Then came the leaks.  Israeli media, citing unnamed sources, began reporting that this was no mere reconnaissance mission but rather a military operation against a suspected Syrian nuclear installation.  Leaks from unnamed sources in the U.S. government offered a series of contradictory explanations—each lacking credibility—further confusing the plot.

On Sunday the London Times dropped a bomb of its own.  The Times reported that Israeli commandos had conducted a raid on a suspected joint Syrian-North Korean nuclear facility earlier this summer.  Commandos had surreptitiously seized samples of nuclear material subsequently confirmed to be of North Korean origin.  With Washington’s blessing, the Israeli F15s bombed the site near Dayr az-Zawr in northern Syria on September 6, leaving behind nothing but a smoldering ruin and a couple of jettisoned fuel tanks.

But like any good mystery novel, finding out whodunit only provokes more questions.  How extensive is this joint Syrian-North Korean nuclear program?  At a time when Pyongyang has warmed to disarmament talks and international inspection of its own nuclear facilities, why would it risk all by engaging with Syria in a secret nuclear venture?  Could North Korea be attempting to hide questionable nuclear material in an effort to outsmart inspectors?

What, if anything, will Syria and North Korea do next?  Syria has been ominously silent since the days immediately following the attack when it had once threatened to take up the Israeli incursion with the U. N. Security Council.  In an ominous development, Syrian Ba’ath party director Sayeed Elias Daoud flew to North Korea by way of China for high level talks, prompting some experts to warn of a possible reprisal against Israel.  Perhaps President Bush was on to something after all when he spoke of the Axis of Evil.

And speaking of the Axis of Evil, given Syria’s ties to Tehran, is it merely a coincidence that Syria and North Korea have been caught attempting to advance their nuclear ambitions at the very time Iran is stridently doing the same?  Was Iran somehow involved with the Dayr az-Zawr facility?

As more and more information about the September 6 incident comes time light, the plot actually becomes less and less clear.  It would seem the final chapter of this mystery has yet to be written.